valuation
5. Valuation Report

Executive Summary
This report details the principles and methods for determining a valuation for Cadence
Cadence is a 260-home build-to-rent community in suburban Phoenix. The plan is develop-to-core: build at 60% loan-to-cost, lease up to stabilised occupancy, refinance into permanent debt, and hold for income. Stabilised net operating income is $5.62M on a 6.55% yield on cost. At a 5.0% exit cap that supports a stabilised value of $112.4M against $85.75M of total development cost, a 155 basis point development spread. The hold runs five years with quarterly distributions to limited partners.
| Stabilised Value | $112.4M |
| Total Development Cost | $85.75M |
| Value Created | $26.7M |
| Yield on Cost | 6.55% |
| Approach | Value | Weighting | Weighted value |
| Direct Capitalisation | $112.4M | 30% | $33.7M |
| Yield-on-Cost Spread | $110.0M | 10% | $11.0M |
| Sales Comparison | $114.0M | 20% | $22.8M |
| Discounted Cash Flow | $113.0M | 20% | $22.6M |
| Cost Approach | $112.4M | 10% | $11.2M |
| Scenario Analysis | $111.0M | 10% | $11.1M |
| 100% | $112.4M |
Table of Contents
Principles & Methodology
Valuation Principles
Methodology
Base Value
Application of Methodology
Direct Capitalisation
Yield-on-Cost Spread
Sales Comparison
Discounted Cash Flow
Cost Approach
Scenario Analysis
Disclaimer
4
5-7
8-12
13
14
15-16
17-18
19-21
22-23
24-25
26-29
30
Principles & Methodology

Valuation Principles:
A fair price both sides can explain
Balanced inputs: We use facts that are sourced, dated, and unitized. Assumptions are consistent across the report and cross-checked against market evidence. Outliers are flagged, not quietly averaged in. If a number changes upstream, the downstream
Property first: We start with the asset as designed and the rents it can command today, not a pro forma target. Site, program, achievable rents, and operating costs drive the range. An approach output cannot leapfrog weak evidence. Strong evidence can justify a higher pos
Market anchored: We reference current comparable trades, prevailing cap rates, per-door pricing, and the cost of debt. Each data point has a source and a date so readers can judge freshness. Stale or non-comparable data is excluded. The market view info
Shared fairness: Both sides should be able to explain the number in a few sentences. Steps are reproducible from inputs to final output, with no hidden tweaks. If we override an approach, we say what we changed and why. The same logic applies
Durable value: We test how much the conclusion moves under reasonable changes. Cap rate up or down, weight shifts, and small rent swings are shown. The report highlights what would materially raise or lower value and points to the ev
Data with judgment: We prefer data, but a new development has gaps. Where inputs are thin, we use conservative ranges and state the rationale. We mark what would confirm the estimate. No false precision, no unexplained plugs.
Transparent and repeatable: Inputs are visible, formulas are standard, totals reconcile. The executive summary pulls directly from the approach pages. Version, preparer, and sources create an audit trail. A reader can rebuild the result in a
This report shows exactly how these principles are applied, step by step
Valuation Principles:
The table links each principle to the proof we show and where to find it. Use it as a checklist while you review. If something is missing in a live report, we flag the gap and note the impact.
| Principle | What we show | Section |
| Balanced inputs | Source list, dated assumptions, currency and units on every table | Scope and Sources |
| Property first | Asset table with evidence lines for location, product, lease-up, rent level, operating cost, and cap rate | Asset Profile |
| Market anchored | Market-band table plus comparable trades with price, per-door value, cap rate, date, links | Market Conditions, Sales Comparison |
| Shared fairness | Single weighting model and one triangulation, with overrides documented | Weighting and Triangulation |
| Durable value | Two sensitivities: cap rate up or down; rent and lease-up shifts | Sensitivities |
| Data with judgment | Analyst notes where inputs are thin and what adjustment was made | Approach footers |
| Transparent and repeatable | Standard approach template: inputs box, calc box, output, caveat | Approach pages, Exec Summary |
What this gives you. A traceable valuation with sources, consistent approaches, and one reconciled result. You can verify inputs, rerun the math, and see where judgment was used. Fair, explainable, repeatable.
Valuation Process
We value using a simple waterfall. We profile the asset, read today's market, set a fair range, then run approaches to plot a point inside that range. That point drives the concluded value.
Asset. Evidence comes from the scheme as designed. Location and access, home types and specification, achievable rents and lease-up pace, operating costs, and the management plan. Cadence's 260-home program and stabilised $5.62M NOI set the baseline against peers.
Market. We look at the debt climate and the cap rate trend, recent comparable trades, and macro and cost of capital. Sun Belt in-migration and institutional demand for stabilised build-to-rent shift the baseline to match current pricing.
Range. This bracket is what a willing buyer and seller would call reasonable today. Approach outputs must sit inside it. If one lands outside, we explain it and constrain it.
Approaches
Direct capitalisation divides stabilised NOI by a market exit cap rate.
Yield-on-cost spread measures the gap between development yield and exit cap.
Sales comparison references recent comparable trades on a per-door basis.
Discounted cash flow discounts the five-year levered cash flow to exit.
Cost approach compares total development cost with stabilised value to show value created.
Scenario analysis weights downside, base, and upside cases.
Result. Weighted result = the sum of each approach value times its weight = the concluded value.
Methodology
A valuation sits inside a range that a willing buyer and seller would call reasonable today. Two readings set that range: the asset profile, which is internal evidence of income quality, and the market band, which is external conditions in the
Asset profile
How stabilised and durable the income is. We score seven signals of income quality. The profile sets the baseline against peers.
Location. What exists in users' hands and how stable it is.
Design. Who is on the field and how roles are covered.
Lease-up. Evidence that people want it.
Rent level. Current revenue level and path to profit.
Development cost. How much outside capital and from whom.
Leasing. Channels in use and how repeatable they are.
Operating economics. CAC, margins, payback, and LTV quality.
Market conditions
Where the deal sits in current market conditions. We read seven external signals. The band shifts the baseline up or down to match what the market is paying right now.
Debt climate. How active investors are and how fast rounds close.
Transaction activity. Depth of buyers and recent outcomes.
Cap rate benchmarks. Typical EV to ARR for comparable companies.
Competing supply. How crowded and strong the field is.
Zoning and policy. Headwinds or tailwinds from rules and incentives.
Construction market. Availability and cost of key hires.
Macro and cost of capital. Rates, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Methodology
The table below maps each asset signal to what a weaker, neutral, or stronger reading looks like in practice. The strongest cluster of signals sets the profile.
| Market conditions | Location | Design | Lease-up | Rent level | Development cost | Leasing | Operating economics |
| Weaker | A secondary location with limited access to jobs and amenities. | A generic layout with few yards, garages, or amenity draws. | Pre-leasing is thin and absorption is unproven. | Rents sit below the submarket with little pricing power. | Cost basis is high relative to the value it can support. | No leasing team or management platform in place. | Operating costs and net margins are unproven. |
| Neutral | A solid suburban location with reasonable access to jobs and schools. | A functional design with some yards, garages, and shared amenity. | Pre-leasing tracks plan and homes absorb at a steady pace. | Rents hold at the submarket average with stable pricing. | Cost basis is in line with the value it supports. | One leasing channel with tracked traffic and conversion. | Operating costs settle and margins become predictable. |
| Stronger | A prime Sun Belt location with strong in-migration and job growth. | A desert-modern product with yards, garages, and a full amenity core. | Lease-up runs ahead of plan to stabilised occupancy near 94%. | Rents command a premium over garden apartments with room to grow. | Cost basis sits well below stabilised value, a wide development spread. | A full leasing and management platform with repeatable renewals. | Opex ratio holds near 37% and the NOI margin expands. |
Methodology
The table below maps each market signal to what an unfavorable, neutral, or favorable reading looks like in practice. We anchor the band to the strongest cluster of signals.
| Market conditions | Debt climate | Transaction activity | Cap-rate benchmarks | Competing supply | Zoning or policy support | Construction market | Macro tailwinds and cost of capital |
| Unfavorable | Lending tight, few active lenders, slow to size loans. | Few recent trades; buyers scarce; pricing signals unclear. | Cap rates above 6.0% for most stabilised assets. | Heavy new supply competes hard for renters. | Entitlement hurdles or impact fees raise the bar. | Trades scarce, schedules slip, hard costs spiking. | Rising rates and recession fears tighten lending and push cap rates up. |
| Neutral | Steady lending with careful underwriting. | Occasional trades show cautious liquidity. | Cap rates of 5.0% to 5.5% for solid assets. | Balanced pipeline with credible competing communities. | Predictable zoning with some grey areas. | Adequate trade availability; budgets tight. | Neutral macro keeps capital available on prudent terms. |
| Favorable | Deep lending appetite, multiple lenders competing. | Regular institutional trades signal strong liquidity. | Cap rates near 4.5% where demand is strong. | Limited new supply; well-located assets lease quickly. | Incentives and by-right zoning speed delivery. | Deep trade availability; hard costs stabilize. | Low rates and strong capital flows support values. |
Methodology
| Profile down / Band across | Band 1 | Band 2 | Band 3 | Band 4 | Band 5 |
| Pre-Development | $28M - $42M | $36M - $52M | $46M - $62M | $56M - $74M | $68M - $88M |
| Early Lease-up | $40M - $55M | $50M - $66M | $60M - $78M | $72M - $92M | $86M - $108M |
| Lease-up | $52M - $68M | $62M - $80M | $74M - $92M | $86M - $106M | $98M - $120M |
| Late Lease-up | $60M - $76M | $72M - $90M | $84M - $104M | $96M - $118M | $110M - $132M |
| Early Stabilised | $68M - $84M | $80M - $98M | $92M - $110M | $100M - $120M | $114M - $138M |
| Stabilised | $74M - $90M | $86M - $104M | $96M - $116M | $100M - $125M | $118M - $142M |
| Core Stabilised | $82M - $100M | $95M - $114M | $108M - $128M | $122M - $146M | $138M - $165M |
Having set the asset profile and the market band we use market data to get a value range.
Methodology
After defining the range of value, we apply six valuation methods to triangulate where within that range Cadence sits. These methods are weighted by stage: earlier stages weight internal methods more heavily, later stages weight external and forecasted methods.
Income approaches
- Direct Capitalisation
- Yield-on-Cost Spread
Market approaches
- Sales Comparison
- Discounted Cash Flow
Cost and scenario approaches
- Cost Approach
- Scenario Analysis
Approach weighting by profile
Lease-up
Stabilising
Stabilised
Base Value
We have identified that Cadence stage of business fits into Band 4 of Stabilised round.
Giving it a value of $100M - $125M
The asset has a stabilised income base, strong Sun Belt demand, and a durable operating profile. Net operating income reaches $5.62M at stabilisation on a 6.55% yield on cost, with 260 homes leased to roughly 94% occupancy. What the plan delivers is core income, not a turnaround: horizontal work, phased vertical delivery, lease-up, and a refinance into permanent debt. The asset sits at the intersection of family-sized rental demand that new supply cannot easily meet and a cost basis well below stabilised value.
Application of Methodology

Valuation Approaches

Direct Capitalisation
Direct capitalisation is the primary approach for valuing stabilised income property. It converts a single year of stabilised net operating income into value using a market cap rate. It gives a clear, market-based way to estimate what a buyer would pay for the income stream.
The value is stabilised NOI divided by the exit cap rate. Cadence produces $5.62M of stabilised NOI, and at a 5.0% exit cap that supports a stabilised value of $112.4M. The drivers below confirm the income behind that value, each scored to test how durable it is.
Strengths
Simple and market-based, well suited to stabilised assets. Anchors directly to how buyers price income: a cap rate on in-place NOI, which is the clearest signal at stabilisation.
Limitations
A single-year snapshot can miss timing. It leans on picking the right cap rate, and small cap-rate moves swing value. It assumes income is stabilised, so it fits less well mid lease-up.
key value drivers
Five income drivers. Each scored independently.
Stabilised NOI
Foundational value
Exit Cap Rate
Sets the value multiple
Rent Durability
Reduces income risk
Occupancy
Reduces vacancy risk
Operating Efficiency
Protects net operating margin
Direct Capitalisation
The value is stabilised NOI of $5.62M divided by the 5.0% exit cap. Each driver below is scored to confirm the income supporting that value, and its assigned value is its share of the $112.4M total.
| Value Driver | Value | Score (1-10) | Rationale | Assigned Value |
| Stabilised NOI | $25.0M | 9 | Stabilised NOI of $5.62M rests on 260 homes at a blended $2,925 per month, EGI of $8.92M after 6% vacancy, and a 37% opex ratio. The income is real and diversified across four home types, not a single-tenant bet. | $24.5M |
| Exit Cap Rate | $25.0M | 9 | A 5.0% exit cap reflects institutional pricing for stabilised Sun Belt build-to-rent. It sits 155 basis points below the 6.55% yield on cost, the spread the development earns. The cap is supported by recent comparable trades. | $23.0M |
| Rent Durability | $22.0M | 9 | Family-sized rentals with yards and garages hold occupancy through cycles and renew at higher rates than garden apartments. Renters priced out of ownership underpin demand. Rent growth is modest and defensible, not aggressive. | $21.5M |
| Occupancy | $22.0M | 9 | Stabilised occupancy is underwritten at roughly 94%, a 6% vacancy and credit loss. Sun Belt in-migration and a structural shortage of family rental support absorption. The lease-up plan phases delivery to protect occupancy. | $21.4M |
| Operating Efficiency | $22.0M | 9 | A 37% operating expense ratio reflects an efficient single-site community with a dedicated management platform. Scale across 260 homes spreads fixed costs, and ancillary income adds $0.37M. Net margin is protected as rents grow. | $22.0M |
| Total | $116.0M | 45 | Concluded | $112.4M |
Yield-on-Cost Spread
The Yield-on-Cost Spread approach values the development by the margin it creates. It compares the stabilised development yield with the exit cap rate a buyer would pay. It scores a set of risk categories from minus two (significant r
Each point adjustment carries a fixed value, set by the delta between the low and high of the value band divided by the total number of points (48). The cumulative adjustment, positive or negative, is applied to
This approach captures both project-specific and market risks around the 155 basis point spread. It is most useful once the cost plan and rents are firm but before a trade sets the price.
Strengths
Covers a wider range of development and market risks than a single cap-rate snapshot, giving a fuller view of what protects or erodes the spread. The transparent adjustment keeps sponsor and LP aligned.
Limitations
Equal weight across all categories. Focused on risk to the spread rather than upside. Relies on judgment and a sound base value, which adds complexity.
risk categories assessed
Twelve categories. Each scored independently from negative two to positive two.
Sponsor and manager risk
-2 to +2Stage of development
-2 to +2Zoning and entitlement risk
-2 to +2Construction and cost risk
-2 to +2Lease-up and demand risk
-2 to +2Financing and refinance risk
-2 to +2Competing supply risk
-2 to +2Design and product risk
-2 to +2Litigation risk
-2 to +2Location and market risk
-2 to +2Reputation risk
-2 to +2Potential for a strong exit
-2 to +2Yield-on-Cost Spread
The base value uses the midpoint of the value band. The value of a point is the delta between the low and high of the band divided by the total number of points (48). Per-risk scores aggregate to a single adjustment applied to the base.
| Risk | Score | Rationale |
| Sponsor and manager | 2 | The sponsor pairs a proven merchant-builder track record with a dedicated third-party management platform. Development, lease-up, and asset management are covered in-house or under contract. The positive score reflects deep execution coverage. |
| Stage of development | 1 | The scheme is fully entitled with a firm guaranteed maximum price and a 60% loan-to-cost construction facility in place. Horizontal work is scoped and phased. Building from a funded, entitled position lowers stage risk. |
| Zoning and entitlement risk | -1 | The site is zoned for the planned density and the build-to-rent use is permitted. Impact fees and future policy shifts remain a live risk in a growing municipality. Entitlements are secured but rule-making can change. |
| Construction and cost risk | 0 | Hard costs of $53.0M are locked under a guaranteed maximum price with a 5% contingency of $2.65M. Trades are contracted and the schedule is phased. Cost risk is neutral, held by the fixed-price structure. |
| Lease-up and demand risk | 1 | Sun Belt in-migration and a shortage of family-sized rental support steady absorption to roughly 94% occupancy. Phased delivery avoids flooding the market. The demand backdrop is a genuine advantage, tempered by lease-up timing. |
| Financing and refinance risk | 0 | The construction loan is committed and the permanent loan is sized to a 1.35x DSCR, releasing about $8.0M of refinance proceeds. A higher-rate environment at refinance is the main variable. Financing risk is balanced. |
| Competing supply risk | -1 | Other build-to-rent and Class A apartment supply competes for renters in the submarket. New deliveries could pressure rents during lease-up. The product's yards and garages differentiate it, but supply is the key downside. |
| Design and product risk | -1 | The desert-modern detached and townhome product is proven and buildable, with no unusual systems. Execution to the design and specification at 260 homes is the watch item. The product is low risk, delivery is the test. |
| Litigation risk | 0 | There is no active litigation, no title dispute, and no contractor claim. The land is under clear title and the contracts are standard. Litigation risk is neutral. |
| Location and market risk | -1 | The suburban Phoenix location depends on continued Sun Belt in-migration and job growth. A regional slowdown would soften rents and absorption. Fundamentals are strong today, but single-market exposure is the main downside. |
| Reputation risk | 1 | The sponsor has a clean delivery record and strong lender and municipal relationships. There is no negative history on prior communities. Reputation supports the score. |
| Potential for a strong exit | 1 | Institutional demand for stabilised build-to-rent is deep, with buyers pricing core Sun Belt income near a 5.0% cap. A year-five sale into that bid is well supported. The exit path is clear and well-trodden. |
Aggregate
| Total Score | 2 |
Value build
| Value of a point | $1.0M |
| Adjustment to base | $2.0M |
| Base value | $108.0M |
| Concluded value | $110.0M |
Sales Comparison
The Sales Comparison approach values the asset against comparable build-to-rent and multifamily trades. It benchmarks the community on a per-unit and per-door basis to recently traded
We identify three comparable communities in the same region, product type, and quality, and average their per-door values. Cadence is then scored against the benchmark across weighted factors, assigning a multiplier where 1.0x equ
Strengths
Straightforward and grounded in real trades, with weightings that reflect what drives per-door value. Widely used by acquisitions teams and appraisers.
Limitations
Requires judgment to adjust for differences between assets. May miss unique site or product features. Depends on recent, truly comparable trades.
key evaluation factors
Seven weighted factors. Multipliers applied to the comparable benchmark.
Location and Submarket
30%Renter Demand
20%Product and Specification
20%Competing Supply
15%Leasing and Management
5%Remaining Cost to Complete
5%Other (amenity, ESG, resident quality)
5%Sales Comparison
Below are the three comparable communities. Each should fall within the region, product type, and quality identified above to be a fair comparison for this approach.
Saguaro Trails
A 312-home build-to-rent community in the East Valley of Phoenix, delivered in 2023 by a national developer. Detached cottages and townhomes around an amenity core. Traded to an institutional buyer in 2024 at roughly $118M, about $378k per door.
Capital Raised: $118.0MDate Raised: Mar-24
https://www.rebusinessonline.com/east-valley-btr-community-trade
Mesa Commons
A 244-home townhome-for-rent community in Mesa, completed in 2022. Class A finishes, attached garages, shared pool and clubhouse. Sold in 2023 to a core fund at about $91M, close to $373k per door, at a 4.9% cap.
Capital Raised: $91.0MDate Raised: Sep-23
https://www.bisnow.com/phoenix/news/multifamily/mesa-btr-sale
Cactus Ridge
A 198-home detached rental community in Chandler, delivered 2023. Yards and two-car garages, desert-modern design. Traded in 2024 at roughly $82M, about $414k per door, reflecting a premium for detached product.
Capital Raised: $82.0MDate Raised: Jun-24
https://www.rejournals.com/chandler-detached-btr-sale
Sales Comparison
Weighted factor scores and comparable per-door inputs produce the multiplier and adjusted value.
| Weighting | Saguaro Trails | Mesa Commons | Cactus Ridge | |
| Trade value per door | $378k | $373k | $414k | |
| Cadence units | 260 | 260 | 260 | |
| Implied gross value | $98.3M | $97.0M | $107.6M | |
| Location and Submarket | 30% | 1.15 x | 1.10 x | 1.15 x |
| Renter Demand | 20% | 1.20 x | 1.15 x | 1.18 x |
| Product and Specification | 20% | 1.15 x | 1.10 x | 1.15 x |
| Competing Supply | 15% | 1.10 x | 1.05 x | 1.10 x |
| Leasing and Management | 5% | 1.10 x | 1.05 x | 1.08 x |
| Remaining Cost to Complete | 5% | 1.05 x | 1.00 x | 1.05 x |
| Other | 5% | 1.12 x | 1.08 x | 1.10 x |
| Total | 100% | 1.15x | 1.10x | 1.14x |
| Weighting | 40% | 30% | 30% | |
| Weighted Value | $45.2M | $32.0M | $36.8M | |
| Concluded Value | $114.0M | |||
Discounted Cash Flow
The Discounted Cash Flow approach values the asset as the present value of its levered cash flows over the hold, plus the reversion at exit. It is widely used for income property with a defined hold and a
We project cash flow from development through lease-up to stabilised income across a five-year hold. Each year carries a distribution to equity, and the year-five sale at a 5.0% cap provides the reversion, discounted to
A discount rate calibrated to the leverage and risk of the plan converts those cash flows to today's value: Value = present value of annual cash flow plus discounted reversion. The approach focuses on the cash the asset returns
Strengths
Aligns value with the cash the asset actually returns. Useful for a defined-hold develop-to-core plan. Transparent, easy-to-follow calculation framework.
Limitations
Highly sensitive to exit cap and rent assumptions. Depends on the lease-up path holding to plan. Small changes in the discount rate move the result.
approach steps
From projected cash flows to a present value in six steps.
Project annual cash flow
5-year holdAdd the year-5 reversion
Exit at 5.0% capSet the discount rate
Levered returnDiscount each year to today
Year by yearSum the present values
Present valueDerive the asset value
OutputDiscounted Cash Flow
Three comparable stage exits in Band 4 are adjusted for the probability of Cadence reaching that scale, weighted by representativeness, then converted to today’s pre-money using the required return multiple.
| Exit basis | Exit Value | Adjustment | Rationale | Weighting | Consideration |
Exit at 4.75% cap Reversion · Year 5 Year-5 NOI $6.14M | $129.3M | 1.00 x | A 4.75% exit cap reflects the strongest institutional bid for stabilised Sun Belt build-to-rent. Applied to year-five NOI of $6.14M it implies $129.3M. The 30% weight reflects an optimistic but supportable exit. | 30.00% | $38.8M |
Exit at 5.00% cap Reversion · Year 5 Year-5 NOI $6.14M | $122.8M | 1.00 x | A 5.00% exit cap is the base case and matches recent comparable trades of stabilised communities. On year-five NOI of $6.14M it implies $122.8M. The 40% weight makes this the anchor scenario. | 40.00% | $49.1M |
Exit at 5.25% cap Reversion · Year 5 Year-5 NOI $6.14M | $117.0M | 1.00 x | A 5.25% exit cap allows for a softer market at sale. On year-five NOI of $6.14M it implies $117.0M. The 30% weight reflects a conservative downside on pricing. | 30.00% | $35.1M |
| Blended exit value (reversion) | $122.8M | ||||
| Discount to present value | 0.92x |
| Present value to exit | $113.0M |
| Less total development cost | $85.75M |
| Value created (this approach) | $27.3M |
Cost Approach
The Cost Approach values the asset as what it costs to build, then compares that basis to stabilised value. It is most useful for newly developed property where the cost plan is firm and recent.
We total land, hard costs, soft costs, financing, and reserves to a development cost, then set the stabilised value the finished asset supports. The gap between the two is the value the development creates.
Total development cost of $85.75M against a stabilised value of $112.4M gives the development premium, the equity value the plan builds before any market movement.
Strengths
Grounded in real, recent costs. Well suited to new development where the basis is known and the finished value is close to replacement cost.
Limitations
Says little about income growth or exit pricing on its own. Less useful once an asset is well seasoned and trades on income rather than cost.
approach steps
From land to value created in six steps.
Total the land cost
$16.0MAdd hard construction
$53.0MAdd soft costs and fees
Contingency and feesAdd financing and reserves
Finance and lease-upSum to development cost
$85.75MCompare to stabilised value
Value createdCost Approach
Total development cost is built from land, hard costs, soft costs, financing and reserves. Set against the stabilised value the finished asset supports, the difference is the value the development creates.
| Land | Hard costs | Soft costs | Financing | Reserves | |
| Development cost | $16.0M | $53.0M | $7.95M | $5.6M | $3.2M |
| Total development cost | $85.75M | ||||
| Stabilised value | $112.4M | ||||
| Value created | $26.7M | ||||
| Yield on cost | 6.55% | ||||
| Cost per home | $62k | $204k | $31k | $22k | $12k |
| Total cost per home | $330k | ||||
| Stabilised value | $112.4M | ||||
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Analysis values the asset across three futures for rent, cap rate, and lease-up: an upside, a base, and a downside case. It combines a discounted view with comparable pricing under each set of
Each scenario flexes stabilised cash flow by a defined percentage. The value is set under each case, producing three values. Probabilities are assigned across the three and must sum to 100%. The output is the probability-weighted av
Strengths
Captures a range of outcomes with probabilistic weighting. Useful for a development where rent, cap rate, and lease-up can each move the result.
Limitations
Sensitive to both scenario assumptions and probability weighting. Requires care to keep cases realistic. Best used alongside the direct and income approaches.
approach steps
Five steps from the base case to a probability-weighted value.
Build base case
Base underwritingDefine upside case
Higher rent, lower capDefine downside case
Lower rent, higher capAssign probabilities
Sum to 100%Compute weighted average
Probability-weighted valueScenario Analysis
Upside, base, and downside cases are given probabilities; their weighted average is the value.
| Scenario | Change in Cash Flow | Probability | Value | Weighted Value |
| Upside case | 12% | 25% | $126.0M | $31.5M |
| Base case | 50% | $112.4M | $56.2M | |
| Downside case | -16% | 25% | $94.0M | $23.5M |
| Value | $111.0M |
Scenario Analysis, Upside Case
Higher rent growth and a tighter exit cap lift stabilised cash flow and value. The build below discounts the upside cash flow to a value.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
| Net operating income | $2.9M | $5.1M | $5.9M | $6.2M | $6.6M |
| Year-5 NOI | $6.6M | ||||
| Exit cap rate | 4.75% | ||||
| Exit value | $138.9M | ||||
| Discount rate | 6.0% | ||||
| Present value of NOI | $2.7M | $4.5M | $5.0M | $4.9M | $4.9M |
| Present value of exit | $103.8M | ||||
| Value | $126.0M |
Scenario Analysis, Downside Case
Slower lease-up, softer rent, and a higher exit cap lower cash flow and value. The build below discounts the downside cash flow to a value.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
| Net operating income | $2.2M | $4.2M | $5.0M | $5.2M | $5.6M |
| Year-5 NOI | $5.6M | ||||
| Exit cap rate | 5.5% | ||||
| Exit value | $101.8M | ||||
| Discount rate | 6.0% | ||||
| Present value of NOI | $2.1M | $3.7M | $4.2M | $4.1M | $4.2M |
| Present value of exit | $76.1M | ||||
| Value | $94.0M |
Concluded Value
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared for the purposes stated herein and should not be relied upon for any other purpose. This document provides a summary of the work undertaken by Top Tier Advisory and unless required by law, this document should not be provided to any third party without our prior written consent. In no event, regardless of whether consent has been provided, shall we assume any responsibility to any third party to which this document is disclosed or otherwise made available.
This document was prepared exclusively for internal use as at the date hereof and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure, in whole or in part, to any other party. This document is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by the representatives of Top Tier Advisory.
The information provided in this document is based solely upon financial and non-financial information provided.
Whilst our work has involved a benchmark analysis, our engagement does not include either an audit or a review in accordance with International Standards on Auditing of the information used in the preparation of this valuation report. Accordingly, we assume no responsibility and make no representations with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any information used in the preparation of this report.
Budgets and forecasts relate to future events and are based on assumptions that may not remain valid for the whole or part of the relevant period. Consequently this information cannot be relied upon to the same
extent as that derived from audited accounts for completed accounting periods. We express no opinion as to how closely the actual results will correspond to those forecasts used in this presentation.
Market conditions and volatility of such markets make valuation exercises, of both company cash flows and financial instruments, extremely challenging and have created a significant potential range of assumptions
on risk-free rate, equity market risk premium and debt spreads. In addition, theoretical assumptions may not reflect reality. Subjectivity over key inputs to the cost of capital and capital and operating expenditure
assumptions, as well as underlying concerns about the impact of the economic upturns and/or downturn on the financial forecasts increases the complexity of the valuation analysis.
The benchmarking of companies, businesses and related cash flows is not a precise science and the conclusions arrived at in many cases will, of necessity, be subjective and dependent on the exercise of individual
Judgement as well as publicly available information to a certain extent. There is therefore no indisputable single value and we normally express the value as falling within a range at a point in time. Whilst we consider our benchmarks to be both reasonable and defensible based on the information available to us, others may place a different value on the benchmarks.